The atmospheric circulation, not only near the surface but also at high altitudes, is probably the main factor determining the weather and climate of a given area, along with its latitude, altitude, the shape of the relief of the area and its surroundings, and the proximity of water basins of different sizes. The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between anticyclonic circulation types in the middle troposphere at the 500 hPa level and the seasonal summer temperature over the region of the central Balkan Peninsula, particularly Bulgaria. A previously compiled classification of atmospheric circulation is used, and the frequencies of the circulation types are correlated with the mean seasonal (monthly) temperature, where the extreme seasons and months are defined as the 10th percentile for cold summer seasons and months and the 90th percentile for warm ones. A positive and statistically significant correlation was found for the anticyclones located southwest of Bulgaria and a negative one for those located southeast of it. A comparison between the last two 30-year climatological periods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020) was also made, and an irrefutable decrease in the number of cold summer seasons from 257 to just 17 was found in the last 30 years, respectively, as well as a rapid increase in the number of extreme warm summer seasons from 26 to 263, encompassing all 15 meteorological stations studied. Full article

To provide diverse in-home services like elderly care, versatile activity recognition technology is essential. Radio-based methods, including WiFi CSI, RFID, and backscatter communication, are preferred due to their minimal privacy intrusion, reduced physical burden, and low maintenance costs. However, these methods face challenges, including environmental dependence, proximity limitations between the device and the user, and untested accuracy amidst various radio obstacles such as furniture, appliances, walls, and other radio waves. In this paper, we propose a frequency-shift backscatter tag-based in-home activity recognition method and test its feasibility in a near-real residential setting. Consisting of simple components such as antennas and switches, these tags facilitate ultra-low power consumption and demonstrate robustness against environmental noise because a context corresponding to a tag can be obtained by only observing frequency shifts. We implemented a sensing system consisting of SD-WiFi, a software-defined WiFi AP, and physical switches on backscatter tags tailored for detecting the movements of daily objects. Our experiments demonstrate that frequency shifts by tags can be detected within a 2 m range with 72% accuracy under the line of sight (LoS) conditions and achieve a 96.0% accuracy (F-score) in recognizing seven typical daily living activities with an appropriate receiver/transmitter layout. Furthermore, in an additional experiment, we confirmed that increasing the number of overlaying packets enables frequency shift-detection even without LoS at distances of 3–5 m. Full article

The dynamic behaviors of articulated buses during braking and steering processes are exceedingly complex due to the transmission of various forces and torques by the articulated device. The coupling of forces between the front and rear carriages often renders the bus prone to yaw instability under extreme operating conditions. In this paper, according to the characteristics of the structure and parameter matching of an electrically driven articulated bus, a dynamic model of longitudinal and transverse coupling applied on an articulated bus is established, and the influence of the articulated structure on the yaw stability of the drive vehicle is analyzed. Combined with the relationship between the driving motor, the hinge device, and the vehicle motion, a cruise simulation model of the bus is developed, enabling a comparative analysis and verification of vehicle stability under typical road conditions. The results offer a theoretical foundation for the design and control of highly reliable articulated buses. Full article

Introduction: Hypoglycemia has been associated with cardiovascular events, and glucose variability has been suggested to be associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Therefore, in this study, we examined the effect on proteomic cardiovascular risk protein markers of (i) mild iatrogenic hypoglycemia and (ii) severe iatrogenic hypoglycemia followed by rebound hyperglycemia. Methods: Two iatrogenic hypoglycemia studies were compared; firstly, mild hypoglycemia in 18 subjects (10 type 2 diabetes (T2D), 8 controls; blood glucose to 2.8 mmoL/L (50 mg/dL) for 1 h), and secondly, severe hypoglycemia in 46 subjects (23 T2D, 23 controls; blood glucose to <2.2 mmoL/L (<40 mg/dL) transiently followed by intravenous glucose reversal giving rebound hyperglycemia). A SOMAscan assay was used to measure 54 of the 92 cardiovascular protein biomarkers that reflect biomarkers involved in inflammation, cellular metabolic processes, cell adhesion, and immune response and complement activation. Results: Baseline to euglycemia showed no change in any of the proteins measured in the T2D cohort. With severe hypoglycemia, the study controls showed an increase in Angiopoietin 1 (ANGPT1) (p < 0.01) and Dickkopf-1 (DKK1) (p < 0.01), but no changes were seen with mild hypoglycemia. In both the mild and severe hypoglycemia studies, at the point of hypoglycemia, T2D subjects showed suppression of Brother of CDO (BOC) (p < 0.01). At 1 h post-hypoglycemia, the changes in ANGPT1, DKK1, and BOC had resolved, with no additional protein biomarker changes despite rebound hyperglycemia from 1.8 ± 0.1 to 12.2 ± 2.0 mmol/L. Conclusions: Proteomic biomarkers of cardiovascular disease showed changes at hypoglycemia that resolved within 1 h following the hypoglycemic event and with no changes following hyperglycemia rebound, suggesting that any cardiovascular risk increase is due to the hypoglycemia and not due to glucose fluctuation per se. Full article

Solar water evaporation offers a promising solution to address global water scarcity, utilizing renewable energy for purification and desalination. Transition-metal selenite hydrates (specifically nickel and cobalt) have shown potential as solar absorbers with high evaporation rates of 1.83 and 2.34 kg∙m⁻²∙h⁻¹, but the reported discrepancy in evaporation rate deserves further investigation. This investigation aims to clarify their thermal stability for applications and determine the underlying mechanisms responsible for the differences. Nickel and cobalt selenite hydrate compositions were synthesized and investigated via thermogravimetric analysis, X-ray diffraction, and Raman spectroscopy to assess their temperature-induced structural and compositional variations. The results reveal distinct phase transitions and structural alterations under various temperature conditions for these two photothermal materials, providing valuable insights into the factors influencing water transportation and evaporation rates. Full article

Two-plus-one (2+1) highways are a special configuration of two-lane two-way (TLTW) highways with a continuous center lane that is used to alternate passing lanes. The main objective of this paper is, therefore, to evaluate the suitability of the 2+1 design for Middle East conditions as a replacement for traditional TLTW roads with higher traffic volumes or as an interim solution before transforming TLTW roads into four-lane highways. In our analysis, we considered both safety and mobility performances by comparing the 2+1 and TLTW designs. The new suggested 2+1 designs were evaluated, with the first design prohibiting overtaking in the opposite direction, while the second design permitted it. Additionally, two-speed-limit strategies, uniform speed limit (USL), and differential speed limit (DSL) were also evaluated. The results showed that the 2+1 design, which prohibited overtaking in the opposite direction, was superior to TLTW in terms of mobility and safety, while the other design compromised safety compared to TLTW. The results provide valuable information to policymakers, urban planners, and transport authorities to guide evidence-based decisions on the integration of the 2+1 design as a viable solution for sustainable and efficient transportation. Full article

Dogs are considered the main reservoir of several zoonoses endemic to the Mediterranean Basin. In this study, a prevalence of infections and coinfections of canine vector-borne diseases was analyzed in apparently healthy dogs of different canine pure breeds in Sicily (Italy), where these diseases are endemic. The seroprevalence of Leishmania infantum, Ricketsia ricketsii, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Erlichia canis was assessed, as single and coinfections. Biochemical and hematological parameters were evaluated, and epidemiological factors, including sex, age, and canine breed, were recovered. The most frequent infection was L. infantum (45.61%), following R. ricketsii (36.84%), both as single, double, or triple coinfections. Coinfections change the biochemical and hematological parameters of the host, and canine breeds are related to the infection frequency and the parameters observed during infections. Changes in the complete blood count (CBC) and biochemical values also differ between canine breeds, with the Cirneco dell’Etna dogs infected with L. infantum being the animals presenting the most interesting results in our study. High values of RBC, hemoglobin, hematocrit, mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), the albumin/globulin (A/G) ratio, and albumin and low levels of β-2 globulin and γ-globulin were found only in this canine breed, suggesting some resistance to infection in these dogs. Future studies about the immune response of this canine breed could be interesting to determine their possible resistance to zoonotic pathogens, such as L. infantum. Full article

Endotracheal suctioning is an essential but labor-intensive procedure, with the risk of serious complications. A brand new automatic closed-suction device was developed to alleviate the workload of healthcare providers and minimize those complications. We evaluated the clinical efficacy and safety of the automatic suction system in mechanically ventilated patients with pneumonia. In this multicenter, randomized, non-inferiority, investigator-initiated trial, mechanically ventilated patients with pneumonia were randomized to the automatic device (intervention) or conventional manual suctioning (control). The primary efficacy outcome was the change in the modified clinical pulmonary infection score (CPIS) in 3 days. Secondary outcomes were the frequency of additional suctioning and the amount of secretion. Safety outcomes included adverse events or complications. A total of 54 participants, less than the pre-determined number of 102, were enrolled. There was no significant difference in the change in the CPIS over 72 h (−0.13 ± 1.58 in the intervention group, −0.58 ± 1.18 in the control group, p = 0.866), but the non-inferiority margin was not satisfied. There were no significant differences in the secondary outcomes and safety outcomes, with a tendency for more patients with improved tracheal mucosal injury in the intervention group. The novel automatic closed-suction system showed comparable efficacy and safety compared with conventional manual suctioning in mechanically ventilated patients with pneumonia. Full article

Potato virus Y (PVY) is one of the most important constraints to potato production worldwide. There is an increasing occurrence of recombinant PVY strains PVY^NTN and PVY^N-Wi and a decline in the incidence of the nonrecombinant PVY^O. We hypothesized that this may be due to the ability of these recombinant strains to antagonize and/or outcompete PVY^O in mixed infections. To determine this, we investigated interactions between PVY^O and three recombinant PVY strains common in North America: PVY^NTN, PVY^N-Wi, and PVY^N:O. Overall, our study showed that these interactions are tissue-dependent. Specifically, PVY^NTN, the main causal agent of potato tuber necrotic ringspot disease (PTNRD), was found to be more adaptable than PVY^O, especially in potato leaves due, at least in part, to the Ny gene that confers hypersensitive resistance (HR) to PVY^O. Furthermore, PVY^N-Wi was found to repress PVY^O in potato tubers but act synergistically in potato leaves. The PVY^O-induced foliage necrosis in cultivar ‘Ranger Russet’ was observed to be more severe in plants co-infected by PVY^N-Wi and PVY^N:O, respectively, resulting in plant death. Strikingly, this PVY^O -induced necrosis was suppressed by PVY^NTN in doubly infected plants. These interactions may, at least partially, explain the decreasing incidence of PVY^O in United States potato production regions, especially given that many cultivars contain the Ny gene, which likely limits PVY^O enabling PVY^NTN and PVY^N-Wi to outcompete. We also found that replication and cell-to-cell movement of these PVY strains in tubers at 4 °C was similar to levels at ambient temperature. Full article

With the current trends of wind energy already playing a major part in the Scottish energy supply, the capacity of wind farms is predicted to grow exponentially and reach further depths offshore. However, a key challenge that presents itself is the integration of large producing assets into the current UK grid. One potential solution to this is green hydrogen production, which is being heavily researched in industry, with many concepts being investigated for large-scale purposes. However, the operations and maintenance (O&M) costs and availability of green hydrogen systems need to be quantified to ensure economical and technical viability, which is sparse in the available literature. The study presented in this paper investigated the availability and O&M costs of coupled wind–hydrogen systems by attempting to quantify the failure rates, repair times, repair costs and number of technicians required for key green hydrogen components. This study also utilised an O&M model created by the University of Strathclyde, which uses Monte Carlo Markov chain simulations to produce the O&M outputs. A number of assumptions were made throughout the study in relation to the O&M model inputs, and the baseline availability for the coupled wind–hydrogen system was 85.24%. Whilst the wind turbine still contributed a major part to the downtime seen in the simulations, the combined hydrogen system also contributed a significant amount, a total of 37%, which could have been due to the technology readiness levels of some the components included in the hydrogen system. Full article

Important metapopulation dynamics are disrupted by factors such as habitat loss, climate change, and human-induced mortality, culminating in isolated wildlife populations and threatening species survival. Source populations, where birth rates exceed mortality and connectivity facilitates dispersal, contrast with sink populations, where mortality outstrips births, risking localised extinction. Recolonisation by individuals from source populations is pivotal for species survival. The leopard is the last free-roaming apex predator in South Africa and plays an important ecological role. In the Eastern and Western Cape provinces in South Africa, leopard populations have low densities and fragmented population structures. We identified a leopard population that, after being locally extinct for a century, appeared to recolonise an ‘island’ of mountainous habitat. We aimed to understand potential factors driving this recolonisation using recent camera trapping surveys and historical statutory destruction permits. We employed spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) methods to estimate the leopard density and explore potential factors which best explain density. We found that the recently recolonised Piketberg population now exhibits some of the highest densities reported in the region (~1.8 leopards/100 km²; CI 1.4–2.5). Livestock, human presence, elevation, and the camera trap grid appeared to explain leopard detection rates. When considering the historic data, the re-emergence of leopards in the Piketberg coincided with the cessation of the extensive state-sponsored and state-enabled culling of the species, and the change in land use from livestock production to crop agriculture, which likely contributed to the recolonisation. Elucidating these factors deepens our understanding of leopard metapopulation dynamics in relation to land use and species management and highlights the crucial role of private land and state agencies and associated policies in species persistence. Full article

The demand for Vaccinium fruits has skyrocketed due to their nutritional and medicinal properties, notably their high content of phenolic compounds and excellent sensory evaluation. The use of Vaccinium plants and its components as dietary supplements and health ingredients has been on the rise across the world. The attractive fruits contain a high content of anthocyanins and antioxidant compounds. In some popular and valuable cultivars, the conventional propagation methods, exploiting hard or soft wood cuttings, are inefficient. The demand for nursery plants can be fulfilled by micropropagation. This review aims to explore advances in the in vitro culture of Vaccinium plants, focusing on effective disinfection, optimized culture media, and the role of growth regulators in plant development and multiplication. By providing a controlled environment, micropropagation allows the large-scale production of these plants in a short time, ensuring availability throughout the year. Additionally, this technique offers the advantage of studying the effects of abiotic stresses on plants, as well as facilitating research on the production of relevant metabolites. This review seeks to provide an updated overview of the most promising methods and techniques for micropropagation of Vaccinium, thereby contributing to the ongoing development of the blueberry production industry and derivative products. Full article

As a geological barrier for high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal in China, granite is crucial for blocking nuclide migration into the biosphere. However, the high uncertainty associated with the 3D geological system, such as the stochastic discrete fracture networks in granite, significantly impedes practical safety assessments of HLW disposal. This study proposes a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS)-based simulation framework for evaluating the long-term barrier performance of nuclide migration in fractured rocks. Statistical data on fracture geometric parameters, on-site hydrogeological conditions, and relevant migration parameters are obtained from a research site in Northwestern China. The simulation models consider the migration of three key nuclides, Cs-135, Se-79, and Zr-93, in fractured granite, with mechanisms including adsorption, advection, diffusion, dispersion, and decay considered as factors. Subsequently, sixty MCS realizations are performed to conduct a sensitivity analysis using the open-source software OpenGeoSys-5 (OGS-5). The results reveal the maximum and minimum values of the nuclide breakthrough time T_t (12,000 and 3600 years, respectively) and the maximum and minimum values of the nuclide breakthrough concentration C_max (4.26 × 10⁻⁴ mSv/a and 2.64 × 10⁻⁵ mSv/a, respectively). These significant differences underscore the significant effect of the uncertainty in the discrete fracture network model on long-term barrier performance. After the failure of the waste tank (1000 years), nuclides are estimated to reach the outlet boundary 6480 years later. The individual effective dose in the biosphere initially increases and then decreases, reaching a peak value of C_max = 4.26 × 10⁻⁴ mSv/a around 350,000 years, which is below the critical dose of 0.01 mSv/a. These sensitivity analysis results concerning nuclide migration in discrete fractured granite can enhance the simulation and prediction accuracy for risk evaluation of HLW disposal. Full article

Biocolourants could be a sustainable option for dyes that require fossil-based chemicals in their synthesis. We studied the in vitro toxicity of anthraquinone aglycone extract obtained from Cortinarius sanguineus fungus and compared it to the toxicity of its two main components, emodin and previously studied dermocybin. Cell viability, cytotoxicity, and oxidative stress responses in HepG2 liver and THP-1 immune cell lines were studied along with skin sensitisation. In addition, genotoxicity was studied with comet assay in HepG2 cells. Cellular viability was determined by MTT, propidium iodide, and lactate dehydrogenase assays, which showed that the highest doses of both the aglycone extract and emodin affected the viability. However, the effect did not occur in all of the used assays. Notably, after both exposures, a dose-dependent increase in oxidative stress factors was observed in both cell lines as measured by MitoSOX and dihydroethidium assays. C. sanguineus extract was not genotoxic in the comet assay. Importantly, both emodin and the extract activated the skin sensitisation pathway in the KeratinoSens assay, suggesting that they can induce allergy in humans. As emodin has shown cytotoxic and skin-sensitising effects, it is possible that the adverse effects caused by the extract are also mediated by it since it is the main component present in the fungus. Full article

In order to reduce the lateral error of path-following control of unmanned vehicles under variable curvature paths, we propose a path-following control strategy for unmanned vehicles based on optimal preview time model predictive control (OP-MPC). The strategy includes the longitudinal speed limit, the optimal preview time surface, and the model predictive control (MPC)controller. The longitudinal speed limit controls speed to prevent vehicle rollover and sideslip. The optimal preview time surface adjusts the preview time according to the vehicle speed and path curvature. The preview point determined by the preview time is used as the reference waypoint of OP-MPC controller. Finally, the effectiveness of the strategy was verified through simulation and with the real unmanned vehicle. The maximum lateral deviation obtained by the OP-MPC controller was reduced from 0.522 m to 0.145 m under the simulation compared with an MPC controller. The maximum lateral deviation obtained by the OP-MPC controller was reduced from 0.5185 m to 0.2298 m under the real unmanned vehicle compared with the MPC controller. Full article

Pullulan is a polysaccharide that has attracted the attention of scientists in recent times as a former of edible films. On the other hand, its use for the preparation of hydrogels needs more study, as well as the formation of pullulan microcapsules as active ingredient release systems for the food industry. Due to the slow gelation kinetics of pullulan with sodium trimetaphosphate (STMP), capsules cannot be formed through the conventional method of dropping into a solution of the gelling agent, as with other polysaccharides, since the pullulan chains migrate to the medium before the capsules can form by gelation. Pullulan microcapsules have been obtained by using inverse water-in-oil emulsions as templates. The emulsion that acts as a template has been characterized by monitoring its stability and by optical microscopy, and the size of the emulsion droplets has been correlated with the size of the microcapsules obtained, demonstrating that it is a good technique for their production. Although some flocs of droplets form, these remain dispersed during the gelation process and two capsule size distributions are obtained: those of the non-flocculated droplets and the flocculated droplets. The microcapsules have been evaluated as vitamin C release systems, showing zero-order release kinetics for acidic pH and Fickian mechanism for neutral pH. On the other hand, the microcapsules offer good protection of vitamin C against oxidation during an evaluation period of 14 days. Full article

Background: This study aimed to compare the clinical outcomes of using two different devices to treat upper palatal discrepancies evaluated with a digital intraoral scanner. Methods: A total of 64 patients were enrolled and treated with either an elastodontic expansion device (32 patient test group, 16 females and 16 males, mean age 7.08 ± 0.44) or Haas expander (32 patient control group, 16 females and 16 males, mean age 7.32 ± 0.50). The two groups exhibited similar orthodontic features. The orthodontic criteria were: skeletal class I relationship; molar class I relationship; complete eruption of upper sixths; presence of unilateral or bilateral cross bite. All dental casts were examined and subsequently scanned with an intraoral scanner (I-Tero) pre-treatment (T0) and 12 months after the onset of therapy (T1) to assess the distance between the decidous upper canines (ICW, intercanine width) and the distance between the mesiopalatal cusps of the upper first molars (IMW, intermolar width). For statistical analysis, the t-test for continous variables and the chi-square test for categorical variables were used, respectively. Results: There were no statistically significant differences between the mean and SD of the expansions that resulted from the Haas expander and the elastodontic devices (Haas expander vs. Eptamed: ICW_T1 (Haas) = 42.34 (3.09), ICW_T1 (Eptamed) = 42.69 (2.77); p = 0.743; IMW_T1 (Haas) = 34.22 (2.29), IMW_T1 (Eptamed) = 34.00 (2.56); p = 0.800). The two devices were similarly effective. Conclusions: Elastodontic devices and the Haas expander can successfully help the orthodontist to conduct upper arch expansion treatment. However, elastodontic devices are more comfortable during the resolution of palatal discrepancies compared to palatal expander devices. Full article

Due to the falling water level in the Aral Sea and Muynak Lake, the content of salts dissolved in the water has gradually increased, and toxic elements have been deposited at the lake’s bottom and subsequently washed into the Aral region by the river. Bacteria, archaea and fungi are crucial for the cycling of several important inorganic nutrients in soils. From 15 genera and 31 species of recovered microscopic filamentous fungi, a big group was melanized, of which most of them were also phytopathogenic. The second group consisted of keratinophilic species. Isolated bacteria mainly included members of the genera Arthrobacter, Bacillus, Massilia, Rhodococcus and Nocardiopsis. High-throughput sequencing analysis permitted a better view of the mycobiome and prokaryotic communities (comprising archaea). The cultivation and sequencing approaches were shown to be complementary. The aim of the work was to identify soil microorganisms, including the order Halobacteriales, and to discover the differences in species diversity depending on soil salinity and the presence of PTEs in soil. Full article

The red Chinese sand pear (Pyrus pyrifolia Nakai) is native to China and exhibits a unique fruit coloration pattern. Flavonoid 3′-hydroxylase (F3′H) catalyzes the hydroxylation of flavonoids, which subsequently determines the components of anthocyanins and the color of plant organs. Two genes encoding flavonoid 3′-hydroxylase (F3′H), PpF3′HI and PpF3′HII, have been identified in red Chinese sand pears. The coding regions for PpF3′HI and PpF3′HII were 1542 and 1536 bp in length, respectively. PpF3′HI shared 95% of its amino acid sequence identity with PpF3′HII, and a highly conserved P450 superfamily domain was found both in PpF3′HI and in PpF3′HII. Phylogenetic analysis showed that PpF3′HI and PpF3′HII clustered with MdF3′HI and MdF3′HII, respectively. PpF3′H genes were highly expressed in anthocyanin-enriched tissues such as young leaves, and transcription of PpF3′H genes corresponded to anthocyanin biosynthesis during the developmental stages, bagging treatment, and postharvest UV-B/visible irradiation treatment. A Y1H assay showed that PpMYB10 and PpHY5 could interact with the −419 bp to 0 bp and −746 bp to −396 bp fragments of the PpF3′HI promoter region, respectively. Understanding the mechanism of flavonoid hydroxylation patterns will, in turn, promote the development of new technologies for modifying flavonoid and anthocyanin composition in fruits. Full article

Background and Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether early surfactant administration affects the status of ductus arteriosus (DA) in preterm infants ≤ 32 weeks of gestational age (GA) within 24 h of birth. Materials and Methods: It is a prospective study conducted from 1 March 2022 to 31 December 2023 in a tertiary academic center. In-born infants ≤ 32 weeks of gestation (n = 88) were enrolled. The study group was further divided into surfactant (n = 44) and non-surfactant (n = 44) subgroups. Results: A total of 76% of the preterm infants who received surfactant therapy (RRR = 0.839) recorded an increase in Kindler score at 24 h of life (1 − RR = 1 − 0.24 = 76%). Surfactant administration was significantly associated with decreased pre-ductal diastolic pressure (29.9 mmHg vs. 34.8 mmHg, p = 0.0231), post-ductal diastolic pressure (28.7 mmHg vs. 32.2 mmHg, p = 0.0178), pre-ductal MAP (41.6 mmHg vs. 46.5 mmHg, p = 0.0210), and post-ductal MAP (41.0 mmHg vs. 45.3 mmHg, p = 0.0336). There were no significant changes in ductus arteriosus parameters at 24 h of life. Conclusions: Early surfactant administration does not affect the status of ductus arteriosus in preterm infants ≤ 32 weeks of gestational age at 24 h of life. Full article

Servicification in global value chains (GVCs) in emerging and developing Asian economies has become a trend recently. However, there have been no scientific studies to elucidate the mechanism of servicification in GVCs. To fill this gap, this study aims to investigate the involvement of service sectors in GVCs in Asian economies in terms of the quantitative interactions between service inputs and manufacturing exports and inputs and between service inputs and service exports. For this purpose, a panel vector-autoregressive model and the Trade in Value Added database of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were used for the empirical analysis during 1995–2018. The estimation results find that, first, there exist reciprocal interactions between the business services and manufacturing sectors; foreign business service inputs are induced by manufacturing exports, whereas manufacturing inputs are induced by business service exports. Second, foreign manufacturing inputs facilitate foreign business service inputs. Third, business service inputs are promoted by business service exports. These trends in the involvement of business services’ involvement in GVCs have accelerated since the mid-2000s. To enhance the role of services in GVCs, Asian economies should facilitate the removal of explicit restrictions in service trade and address regulatory divergence across countries. Full article

Accurate measurement of systemic financial risk is crucial for maintaining the stability of financial markets. Taking China as the subject of investigation, the Chinese Financial Stress Index (CFSI) indicator system was constructed by integrating six dimensions and employing Gray Relation Analysis (GRA) to reduce the dimensionality of the indicators. The CFSI was derived using the Attribute Hierarchy Model (AHM) method with the Criteria Importance Through the Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method, and an Improved Gravitational Search Algorithm (IGSA)-optimized Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) was proposed for out-of-sample prediction of CFSI trends from 2024 to 2026. By analyzing the trends in financial pressure indicators, the intricate relationship between financial pressure and economic activity can be effectively discerned. The research findings indicate that (1) the CFSI is capable of accurately reflecting the current financial stress situation in China, and (2) the IGSA-RBFNN demonstrates strong robustness and generalization capabilities, predicting that the CFSI index will reach a peak value of 0.543 by the end of 2024, and there exists a regular pattern of stress rebound towards the end of each year. The novel methodology enables policymakers and regulatory authorities to proactively identify potential risks and vulnerabilities, facilitating the formulation of preventive measures. Full article